• Toyota pushes back electric vehicle production plans in America (Detroit Free Press, October 7, 2024)

  Toyota has long been cautious about the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, and the current EV market slowdown seems to validate its skepticism. However, despite the slump, the global auto industry continues to shift toward electrification, and all manufacturers, including Toyota, will ultimately need to adjust – albeit at a slower pace than originally anticipated.

  Though there were reports of Toyota’s three-row EV SUV launching by the end of 2025, production has been delayed until at least 2026. Meanwhile, Lexus has canceled its plans for a new electric vehicle as EV sales continue to decline in the U.S. Despite the downturn, Toyota remains committed to producing 1.5 million EVs annually by the end of 2026, with plans to introduce seven new EV models to the U.S. market.

• Google’s Waymo Chooses Hyundai Ioniq 5 for Autonomous Driving Fleet (MSN, October 6, 2024)

  Hyundai and Waymo partner to integrate autonomous driving technology into Hyundai vehicles, starting with the sixth generation Waymo Driver in the Hyundai Ioniq 5. Vehicles will be produced at Hyundai’s Georgia factory with autonomous pre-installation, ensuring they are ready for self-driving technology. Waymo plans to add the Ioniq 5 to its Waymo One fleet by 2025, expanding its operations in select U. S. regions. This collaboration allows Hyundai to enter the autonomous vehicle sector while growing Waymo’s fleet, previously supplied by Chrysler and Jaguar. The latest Waymo Driver features advanced hardware and software for enhanced detection capabilities in various conditions.

•  Autonomous vehicles could render personal auto insurance obsolete by 2044, new report finds (CBT News, October 4, 2024)

  A new Morningstar report suggests that self-driving cars might significantly diminish the need for personal auto insurance within 20 years. By 2044, if AVs are widely adopted, liability could shift from drivers to manufacturers, transitioning insurance to product liability. Full adoption of Level 4 or 5 autonomy, where cars drive without human intervention, could make personal insurance obsolete by 2060. Currently, most vehicles have Level 2 automation requiring driver assistance. Companies like Waymo and Cruise are pioneering Level 4 capabilities with region-specific robotaxis. Morningstar projects that AVs could reach 80% market penetration within 7 to 18 years, depending on adoption speed. Insurance may remain unaffected until Level 4 autonomy prevails, but a 10% AV penetration rate by 2035 could begin reshaping the industry, potentially eliminating some insurers by 2043 as AV penetration grows.

• Elon Musk Says ‘Safety First’ Over Convenience As Tesla Scales Up FSD To Fulfill Autonomous Driving Future (Benzinga, July 3, 2024)

  “Safety first, then the convenience features,” stated Elon Musk on X, responding to Sam Pullara, CTO at of Sutter Hill Ventures, who had posted a list of features that he would like to see on Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) driver assistance technology in the future. Pullara stated he would like to see FSD pull the vehicle over to allow people to pass if they are traveling faster, identifying poor drivers, and allowing the vehicle to roll through stop signs. Musk responded that, “[s]ome of this stuff like the rolling stop is technically illegal, so NHTSA gets upset, but 99% of people do it.”

  Tesla and Musk are focused on improving the FSD software to be able to operate without human intervention, but most recently had to delay rolling out the newest version of FSD due to a loss of driving smoothness. But despite years of promises for a fully autonomous system, FSD still requires active driver alertness and supervision.

• Toyota to unveil first ‘full’ self driving EV next year as it chases Tesla (Electrek, June 28, 2024)

  Toyota is gearing up to reveal its first EV equipped with an advanced self-driving system as part of its quest to narrow the gap with industry leaders like Tesla. This initiative comes through its joint venture, GAC Toyota, a collaboration between Toyota Motor and China’s Guangzhou Automobile Group. The venture’s announcement on social media indicated plans to introduce an EV in China next year, boasting capabilities akin to Tesla’s Full Self Drive. The new model, Bozhi 3X SUV, will incorporate cutting-edge autonomous driving features, including road navigation, obstacle avoidance, and automated parking. Toyota’s partnership with Momenta, an autonomous vehicle startup, facilitated the integration of this technology. Additionally, GAC Toyota is collaborating with Huawei to integrate tech into Toyota’s bZ3X electric sedan, further solidifying the brand’s position in the competitive EV market landscape.

• Tesla Is About to Lose Its EV Market Majority in the US (Bloomberg, June 26, 2024)

  For the past six years, Tesla has outsold all other EV manufacturers combined in the US. However, this might end soon as traditional automakers catch up. From June 2022 to May 2023, Tesla sold about 618,000 electric cars in the US, whereas other manufacturers sold approximately 597,000. Despite Tesla’s continued market leadership, its US sales dropped 13% in Q1 2023, while competitors like Ford and Hyundai/Kia saw significant increases. Analysts use state registration data and international sales reports to estimate Tesla’s US deliveries since the company reports sales quarterly without regional specifics. CEO Elon Musk’s politics and Tesla’s limited model range contribute to the challenge, with most sales coming from just two models. Despite the competition, Tesla still dominates the global EV market, making the best-selling Model Y and maintaining the highest valuation among car companies. Still, its future dominance in the US EV market remains uncertain.

• Update To GM’s Cruise Robotaxis Will Try To Stop Them From Crashing Into Emergency Vehicles (Jalopnik, October 16, 2023)

  After several incidents forced GM’s Cruise division to pull half of its fleet of robotaxis from San Francisco’s streets, including most notably incidents where the robotaxis blocked first responder vehicles, the automaker has deployed a software update aimed at solving the issues. Specifically, GM says that it has “programmed its cars to slow to 70% of the posted speed limit when they detect sirens” and identify early stopping locations in the event an emergency vehicle is approaching, and has implemented design changes to allow the robotaxis to predict if an emergency vehicle will go through a red light. “Cruise is also developing a means for its cars to recognize emergency scenes from greater distances and bypass double-parked vehicles. Emergency responders can enter the cars to move them manually from a scene if needed, the company said.”

  Still, opposition to the robotaxis remains strong in some corners. For example, the San Francisco City Attorney’s petition to revoke robotaxi approvals remains pending.

• Federal regulators open probe into Cruise after pedestrian injury reports (CNBC, October 17, 2023)

  Cruise may soon be looking to fix additional problems (see above) as NHTSA has opened a probe into at least four incidents in which a robotaxi reportedly struck a pedestrian. The probe potentially impacts 594 Cruise vehicles.

  “One incident on Oct. 2 involved a situation where a pedestrian was thrown by another vehicle into the path of a driverless Cruise vehicle. That incident matches the details of a hit-and-run crash in San Francisco [in August], which resulted in one pedestrian being transported to the hospital.” Both of these incidents were reported directly to NHTSA, while the other two were identified by the Agency through video posted to public websites.

  Cruise initially responded to the probe by underscoring its safety record and its cooperation with NHTSA in the wake of the October incident, and “said NHTSA had not spoken with the company about the August incident or the two incidents” posted on social media.

• Toyota’s road to autonomy relies on human drivers (AXIOS, October 16, 2023)

  While many OEMs are focusing on fully autonomous, “driverless” technology, Toyota is taking a different approach. “Toyota’s approach relies on human drivers to handle some—or even most—of the tasks, with the autonomous part kicking in only when it detects intervention is needed.”

  Toyota believes its approach not only keeps drivers engaged in the “fun of driving,” but can save lives in the short term and respond to technology challenges that have so far hindered deployment of autonomous vehicles. According to the head of Toyota Research Institute Gil Pratt, “[a]nother advantage for carmakers pursuing mixed human-computer modes is they don’t have to take on liability the way they do with fully self-driving vehicles.”

  The author here had the opportunity to drive three Toyota vehicles following this model, including a “heavily modified Toyota Supra” and a Lexus “outfitted with self-driving capabilities,” on a closed test track in California. Her takeaway? Computers really can be better equipped to handle certain driving tasks than humans. She predicts that vehicles of the future may utilize common tasks like steering and pressing less to operate the car and more to signal to the computer what should happen next.

Even in 2050, when electric vehicles are projected to make up 60 percent of new sales, the majority of vehicles on the road would still run on gasoline. Slow fleet turnover is a major challenge for climate policy.

If the United States wanted to move to a fully electric fleet by 2050—to meet President Biden’s goal of net zero emissions—then sales of gasoline-powered vehicles would likely have to end altogether by around 2035, a heavy lift.

Leading-edge states like New York and California are embracing that “heavy lift,” with both recently announcing legislation and regulations to ban ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle sales by 2035. Skeptics like Toyota’s CEO say that goal is unrealistic.

Will and can government policies accelerate fleet turnover toward electrification? What is “fleet turnover,” anyway? What do you think about the relative average life spans of ICE vehicles vs. electric vehicles?

Check out the video to hear Mike Nelson’s thoughts on these issues, straight from the driver’s seat of his 2009 Ford F-150.

Copyright Nelson Niehaus LLC

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Firm, its clients, or any of its or their respective affiliates. This blog post is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal advice.