What We’re Reading
S&P predicts AVs need at least 10 more years to hit widespread adoption (Repairer Driven News, September 26, 2023)
“A new S&P Global Mobility forecast predicts autonomous vehicles won’t hit the mainstream market for widespread adoption until at least a decade from now.”
In a report released just this past Monday, S&P predicts that autonomous technology will be limited in the near term to geofenced robotaxis and hands-off systems that still require driver engagement. True Level 5 technology likely will not be widely available until at least 2035, given the extreme difficulty developers face in combining “ADAS and sensors with the necessary predictive software and engineering in unsupervised vehicles to operate safely.” Widespread deployment of automated systems (i.e., Level 2+ and 3) is likely to occur more quickly, with S&P predicting that such systems will be available in 31% of new cars sold globally by 2035.
California governor vetoes bill banning robotrucks without safety drivers (Reuters, September 23, 2023)
Not surprisingly based on prior leaks from his office, California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed labor-backed Assembly Bill 316, which requires a human driver in all autonomous vehicles weighing over 10,001 pounds on California roadways.
“Considering ... the existing regulatory framework that presently and sufficiently governs this particular technology, this bill is not needed at this time,” Newsom said in a veto message last week.
The veto of the bill, which passed easily in both houses of the state legislature, appears to be a huge win in the ongoing battle between autonomous technology stakeholders and labor groups seeking to protect human trucking jobs. Although the veto can be overturned by a two-thirds majority vote in each house, such a legislative override has not happened in California since 1979.
This latest development appears to pave the way for the department of motor vehicles to independently develop a regulatory framework for autonomous trucks, which industry insiders anticipate will encourage rather than hinder future development. Governor Newsom added in his veto message that these planned regulations are the best way to transparently address safety and job issues, with input from stakeholders and experts.
Nancy Pelosi Wants Cruise and Waymo To Turn Over Safety Data (The San Francisco Standard, September 19, 2023)
Representative Nancy Pelosi believes “serious safety concerns” warrant an investigation into the operation of Cruise and Waymo robotaxis in San Francisco, and is calling for NHTSA to collect more detailed data from the AV pioneers. Pelosi’s request, joined by fellow California Representative Kevin Mullin, appears motivated by recent reports of robotaxis interfering with emergency responses in the city. In their letter to NHTSA, the two legislators “urged the federal agency to collect data that could be used to draw conclusions on the ‘broader safety’ of autonomous vehicles, such as information on vehicle retrieval events, emergency response interference and lane blockages.”
Waymo and Cruise both responded to the letter with statements underscoring their reporting compliance and safety statistics. NHTSA also issued a statement acknowledging receipt of the letter and its intent to review it.
In the meantime, local debate over robotaxis continues in San Francisco as the City Attorney has requested a rehearing at the California Public Utilities Commission to reconsider the commission’s approval in August to allow Cruise and Waymo to operate 24/7 and charge passenger fares throughout the city.