The EV Wars: How Do Legacy Automakers Plan to Compete in the Race to Electrify?

Global EV sales are expected to surpass 73 million units in 2040, up from around 2 million in 2020, according to forecasts by Goldman Sachs Research. A recent report published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF) similarly forecasts considerable growth in the sector, predicting that more than 50% of U.S. car sales will be EV models by 2030.

While these predictions focus on consumer demand, supply obviously must follow. To keep up, legacy automakers plan to spend a combined $1.2 trillion through 2030 in developing new EV models. How and when they plan to invest, however, differs from automaker to automaker. In today’s post, we take a closer look at the plans of many of the major legacy automakers. We also provide each automaker’s current Greenpeace ranking based on its expected “phase-out of combustion engine vehicles, supply chain decarbonization, and resource reduction and efficiency.” 

General Motors (1)

GM’s electrification strategy centers on a planned investment of $35 billion through 2025 to become the U.S. market leader in EVs; the global leader in battery and fuel cell technology; and the first OEM to commercially scale self-driving technology through Cruise. According to LMC Automotive estimates, GM is expected to be the leading EV manufacturer by 2030, with 18.3% market share, ahead of Tesla at 11.2% and followed distantly by Volkswagen and Ford. 

Mercedes-Benz USA (2)

As one of the leaders in the electrification transition, Mercedes-Benz has committed to launching electric-only vehicle platforms from 2025 onward with the goal of an all-electric fleet by 2030. This aggressive electrification strategy is backed by $47 billion in funding.

Volkswagen Group of America (3)

The Volkswagen Group—which includes Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, and Volkswagen—plans to invest $200 billion over the next five years to solidify its position as an EV market leader. The European automaker aims to have a 50% electrification sales ratio in the U.S and 80% in Europe by 2030, with 70 new electrified models already in the pipeline. The Group already has experienced some setbacks, however, including the delayed rollout of its flagship EV project due to struggles in its software-development unit, Cariad. Disruptions and mismanagement also pushed back the release of the Audi Artemis, the automaker’s attempt to compete with Tesla’s luxury lineup. Still, some analysts see the VW Group surpassing Tesla in electric car sales as soon as 2024.

Ford Motor Company (4)

Despite having never sold an EV before 2020, Ford is investing more than $50 billion to scale development and production at a run rate of 600,000 EVs globally by late 2023, 2 million EVs annually by 2026 (a third of its annual global production), and ramping up to 50% by 2030. The Ford Electric Vehicle Strategy, which includes a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, is a self-described holistic approach to electrification that aims to bring EVs to customers at an accessible price point and a lower cost of ownership. 

Hyundai Motor Company (5)

Hyundai plans to invest over $18 billion through 2030 as it aims to become one of the world’s top 3 EV manufacturers by 2030. The auto group—which includes luxury brand Genesis, as well as Hyundai and a part ownership of Kia—plans to offer 17 new EV models by 2030. The Korean Automaker has committed to electrifying all new model vehicles starting from 2025, with goals of an 80% electrification sales ratio by 2040 and carbon-neutrality by 2045.

Kia Motors (6)

Like its corporate partner Hyundai, Kia has identified specific EV sales targets as part of its future electrification strategy. Key to its transition towards becoming a “sustainable mobility solutions provider” is reaching 2.38 million annual EV sales worldwide by 2030 and increasing its EV lineup to 14 electric models globally by 2027. In the U.S., Kia plans to launch one new EV model every year until the end of the decade, with a goal of converting 50% of overall U.S. sales to EVs by early next decade.

Stellantis (7)

Based in the Netherlands, Stellantis was formed through a 2020 merger of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot S.A (PSA), and encompasses the Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep, Maserati, and Ram truck brands. In July 2021, the automaker unveiled a worldwide electrification strategy called Dare Forward 2030, declaring that all its brands are committed to becoming fully electric with more than 75 EV models and sales of 5 million units by 2028. Stellantis aims to have a 100% EV sales ratio in Europe and a 50% EV sales ratio in the U.S. by 2030. Additionally, the company has set a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2038 with a 50% benchmark established for 2030.

Nissan (8)

Nissan is one of the leaders in the EV market, having sold more than half a million Leaf EVs over the past decade. The Japanese automaker recently announced that it plans to accelerate its electrification strategy as part of its “Ambition 2030” long-term vision. Adding to its original $18 billion investment over the next five years, Nissan plans to introduce 27 new electric models by 2030, resulting in a global electrification sales ratio across the Nissan and Infiniti brands of 55% by 2030.

Honda Motor Company (9)

Honda plans to invest at least $40 billion in EV research and development through 2030 to further its goal of achieving zero-emissions electrification on all vehicles by 2040. To hit this target, the automaker plans to incrementally increase EV sales to 40% of all vehicles by 2030 and 80% by 2035. Separately, Honda revealed plans last week to increase its EV production target to over 2 million units by 2030.

Toyota (10)

In an apparent pivot from its prior hesitancy to embrace EVs, Toyota recently unveiled a new electrification strategy, placing greater emphasis on the short-term development of EVs with 10 new models and an annual sales goal of 1.5 million EVs by 2026. Toyota still remains focused on its long-term electrification strategy of globally producing 3.5 million EVs annually by 2030, backed by $70 billion in investments. As to the Japanese automaker’s luxury brand, Lexus, the full model lineup is expected to be 100 percent electric by 2030.

BMW (not ranked)

BMW entered the electrification race relatively early in 2014 with its i3, an EV designed primarily for urban transit that has had limited success in the U.S. Since then, the Bavarian automaker has steadily introduced new EV models, with a goal of reaching 50% electrification before 2030. The MINI and Rolls-Royce brands—which are both under the BMW umbrella—are slated to be exclusively all-electric by the early 2030s. The automaker aims to have 2 million electric vehicles on global roads by 2025 and expects annual sales of EVs to exceed 1.5 million as early as 2030.

Jaguar Land Rover Limited (not ranked)

The iconic English brands Jaguar and Land Rover have been a subsidiary of Tata Motors, an Indian multinational firm, since 2008. Jaguar currently has only one EV model, the Jaguar I-Pace. On the Land Rover side of the company, an all-electric Range Rover is expected in 2024. As part of its “Reimagine Strategy,” Land Rover will rollout 6 new all-electric SUVs over the next five years and Jaguar will become a pure electric luxury brand by 2025. With the assistance of over $2.5 billion in investments, JLR’s goal is to achieve a 60% EV sales ratio by 2030 and 100% by 2036. Whether the automaker will meet these goals is uncertain, however, with industry experts noting that JLR is in dire straits without the sales and massive electrification budget to compete with other European EV market leaders such as BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen.

Mazda Motor Company (not ranked)

Mazda was somewhat of a latecomer, but recently announced that it plans to significantly increase EV production, targeting a global electrification sales ratio of 40% by 2030 with a nearly $11 billion investment strategy to speed up the transition. Additionally, the Japanese automaker aims to become carbon-neutral by 2050, with its factories achieving this goal by 2035. To facilitate the transition, Mazda plans to partner with one or more companies on the idea of “co-creating with others.”

Mitsubishi Motors (not ranked)

Mitsubishi (which has significant oil and gas interests) has no purely electric vehicles in its current North American or European lineups, despite being an early pioneer in EV development with its 2009 iMiEV electric kei car. The Japanese automaker, however, has been partly owned by Nissan since 2016 and has access to significant technical resources through the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance. It also recently announced that it plans to expand its EV lineup to 50% of its global sales by 2030, with a goal of reaching 100% electrification sales by 2035.

Subaru (not ranked)

Another latecomer to electrification, Subaru announced in early 2020 that it would be the first Japanese automaker to offer full electrification on all models by 2035. Three years later, the Japanese automaker offers only one EV, the Solterra, which was developed and manufactured in Japan and China as part of a joint venture with Toyota. Building on the success of the Solterra, Subaru plans to jointly develop several new EVs with Toyota by 2025 that reportedly will be built in-house at Subaru’s Gunma plant in Japan.  Subaru is targeting a 40% global electrification sales ratio by 2030 and full electrification of all models shortly thereafter. 

Volvo Group North America (not ranked)

Volvo, which is owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group—the Chinese company that also owns Lotus—aims to achieve a 50% EV sales ratio by 2025 with the goal of producing only electric luxury vehicles globally by 2030.

Copyright Nelson Niehaus LLC

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Firm, its clients, or any of its or their respective affiliates. This blog post is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal advice.