Thoughts from the Driver’s Seat with Mike Nelson

Fleet Turnover and Electrification

Last year, in a piece replete with statistics and infographics, three New York times journalists explored the difficult task of moving the United States toward a fully-electric fleet (i.e., vehicles in circulation). According to the article:

Even in 2050, when electric vehicles are projected to make up 60 percent of new sales, the majority of vehicles on the road would still run on gasoline. Slow fleet turnover is a major challenge for climate policy.

If the United States wanted to move to a fully electric fleet by 2050—to meet President Biden’s goal of net zero emissions—then sales of gasoline-powered vehicles would likely have to end altogether by around 2035, a heavy lift.

Leading-edge states like New York and California are embracing that “heavy lift,” with both recently announcing legislation and regulations to ban ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle sales by 2035. Skeptics like Toyota’s CEO say that goal is unrealistic.

Will and can government policies accelerate fleet turnover toward electrification? What is “fleet turnover,” anyway? What do you think about the relative average life spans of ICE vehicles vs. electric vehicles?

Check out the video to hear Mike Nelson’s thoughts on these issues, straight from the driver’s seat of his 2009 Ford F-150.

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